Forex Trading Systems

Forex Trading Systems

Discretionary v/s Mechanical Trading Systems:

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Are mechanical Forex trading systems really any better? Can Automated Forex systems outperform discretionary Forex systems?  Let’s find out.

Some people prefer mechanical Forex trading systems while others prefer a more discretionary approach. My personal approach lies somewhere in between. Let’s look at each of them closely:

By definition, a mechanical or manual Forex trading system provides well defined entry and exit criteria and clearly describes trade setups and execution.  Such trading systems can be quite easily transformed into automated trading systems which can aid back testing, research and analysis.

The merit of such Forex systems lies in the fact that the guesswork is taken out of equation and trader only needs to follow clearly defined set of rules.  It helps to avoid emotions coming into the way of trading and with little discipline such systems can be easily be followed. Not only that but it also helps in reducing stress factor which is a bonus.

On the negative side of mechanical Forex trading systems we got problems with changing market conditions. No set of rules can cover all market conditions and there will be times when such systems would fail miserably.  Situation could become worse if the market conditions do not change for a sustained period of time. Automated Forex systems written based on such trading methods will be unable to cope with unpredictable market conditions.

These Forex systems bring out the artistic characteristics of traders. This is where the logic gets fuzzy and experience becomes paramount in making trading decisions.  A typical discretionary Forex trading system would use chart patterns and trend lines, which by a means are not determined by exact set of rules.

Adaptability and customization are two big advantages of any discretionary trading system.  Such Forex system can easily adapt to changing market conditions and rules can easily be changed to accommodate any unforeseen market scenarios. Experience and intuition are the cornerstones of any discretionary Forex trading systems and they can never be programmed into an Automated trading system.

On the flip side, such trading systems are hard to back-test and have unstable trade results caused mainly by emotions and stress level.  Such systems require much more trading experience and higher degree of discipline.In my opinion, anyone new to Forex trading should start off with mechanical trading systems, it helps to develop discipline and gain experience. It takes time to develop feel of the market and it then becomes easier to move towards more discretionary trading systems. My current method has clear set of rules that identify potential trades, I them use my experience to narrow down and chose the ones that I see fit for the current market conditions. With more work and analysis I hope to improve over time.

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Asymmetric Risk- Taking. Are you guilty?

Asymmetric Risk- Taking. Are you guilty? 

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Why we cut profits early and let losses run? In this article I would address the real trading psychology behind it. Lets start with a simple test !

Most traders new to Forex are often guilty ofletting their losses run and cutting their profits short, even experienced traders do it every once in a while. Before we begin, answer the two questions below. When faced with a scenarios below which option would you prefer?

A. 80% chance of winning $2,000 and a 20% chance to win nothing
B. $1500 Profit for sure

A. 80% chance of losing $2,000 and a 20% chance to lose nothing
B. $1500 Loss for sure

Most traders would chose Option B in Scenario 1 and Option A in Scenario 2. Compare these results with your own answers. If you chose the same then unfortunately you will be among 95% of traders who fails at Forex. Read Forex Loser’s Checklist, and see if you qualify. Lets look at psychology behind your decisions.

The two scenarios are quite interesting. Our perception of gain and loss changes our behaviour. When the options of a risky scenario involve profits, traders are risk-averse (risk-avoidance); however when options of a risky scenario involve losses, traders are risk-seeking. The other words, traders tend to seek risk in face of possible loss and avoid risk when profits are at stake.

This asymmetrical way of risk-taking has great implications on trading decisions we make as a trader. Our decision are based “subjectively”, taking in account recent events rather than looking at overall net trading balance. Let me explain:

After a profitable trade, the decision to close trade and take profit on next trade depends on gains made on previous trade. A trader starts to think ” I’ve made enough on the first trade, lets not lose it all and give away all the profits. Take early profit and call it a day”. At the same time, on a losing position trader delay cutting losses and hold on to trades hoping that it will reverse. The result is that trader realize profits way too early while allowing losses to accumulate.

A professional trader just need to act opposite to typical human behaviour. By considering the impact of losses on net trading balance and not on recent history of trading , a trader can make right decision of letting a losing position go early while keeping the profitable position running. Trading Robots have this advantage over manual trading as they help avoid implications of trading psychology.

Another interesting aspect of trading is the impact of losses on our minds. The feeling of losing an amount is much worse than pleasure gained from winning the same amount. Hence traders, hate losing 10,000 more than they love winning 10,000. Psychologically losses have twice the impact, no wonder why a trader don’t want to close a loosing position and willing to risk more.

A good trader is not a trader who makes millions in fraction of a second. A good trader is one who know where to cut his positions. It is not about making money; it is about losing as less as possible when we are wrong. Thus managing the psychological asymmetry in risk-taking is the key for succeeding as a trader. Bottom line “An experienced trader stands out from a new trader not by how he makes money, but how he loses money”

What should you know about Forex Signals ?

The 15 Questions you should ask your Broker

The 15 Questions you should ask your Broker.

There are many Forex Brokers, but not all were created equal. When it comes to your money, you want to be certain that your Broker meets your expectations. It is your right to ask as many questions as you need to feel comfortable about your venture and if you don’t get the answers your want, you should consider finding another Broker.

Why Size Does Matter

Size matters. Because the Forex market is an over-the-counter market with no centralized exchange, not everyone receives access to the same prices or quality of execution. Institutions with the largest trade volume and the most solid financials have access to better prices and execution. The bigger the broker, the better they are able to pass on the benefits of size, better prices, and better execution to you.

Who Executes Your Orders?

Not all Forex Brokers quote rates the same way. Below are two possible options:

1. Dealing Desk means that your Forex Broker creates the pricing and executes your orders. The spread is usually fixed, which means that traditionally, the spreads are higher than average variable spreads. Check for restrictions on placing orders during news or economic events; for many traders, this is a key time to trade.
2. No Dealing Desk usually means that multiple banks stream competing prices through your Forex Broker, so your orders are executed by the banks themselves. This means that there are usually no restrictions on trading news or economic events, but you should check with your broker.

Spreads

Fractional Pip Pricing

Most major currency pairs are quoted to four decimal places, so a pip would typically equal .0001 or one basis point. Forex Brokers generally round the price up or down to the nearest pip; but some now offer Fractional Pip-Pricing. It ads an additional decimal place, so spreads are usually tighter and more accurate.

Scalping the Market

Many traders favor short-term scalping strategies, which involves placing orders inside the spread. For scalping to be profitable for the client, the market maker must lose, so some Forex Brokers disallow the strategy. This strategy involves a high level of risk.

Rollover

Rollover is interest earned or paid on Forex positions held overnight. It varies depending on the difference in interest rates between a currency pair and fluctuates day to day with the movement of prices. A Negative Roll is when you sell a currency that pays higher interest rate, so you pay interest. A Positive Roll is when you buy a currency that pays higher interest rate, so you can earn interest. Negative Rolls are routine, but not all Forex Brokers offer positive rolls.

The "Carry Trade" is a popular Forex strategy which benefits from Positive Rolls and the high leverage available in the Forex market. For example, if you buy the USD/JPY, you can earn a positive roll. You are essentially borrowing the Japanese yen at a low interest rate cost to buy the US dollar with a high interest rate earning. Remember that leverage can dramatically amplify your losses, so beware of this technique, as it carries a high level of risk.

Hedging

Hedging lets you simultaneously hold BUY and SELL positions in the same currency pair. The most effective way to trade a market if you are uncertain about its direction is to find concrete support and resistance levels. This allows you to pinpoint levels where significant price action will take place.

Hedged positions do not necessarily limit risk as traders can find themselves losing on both sides of the trade. While this strategy tends to work temporarily in range markets, it does not work well in trending markets. Placing stop-loss orders on your positions to mitigate your risk is strongly recommended.

The National Futures Association, a self-regulatory organization in the US, adopted a new Compliance Rule 2-43 in 2009 that prohibits customers of Forex Dealer Members to open a "hedged" position in the same account. This rule may not apply to Forex Dealers outside of the US.

Customer Support

Forex trading works 24 hours a day. Does your Forex Broker? When you ask them questions, do they answer them clearly and honestly or do they give you the run-around? If your Forex Broker can’t answer the 15 questions below, you may want to look for one who can.

15 Questions You Should Ask Your Forex Broker

The following 15 questions are based on the above information and relate to basic information that your Forex Broker should answer without hesitation.

1. How long have you been a Forex Broker?
2. In what financial condition is your company? Will you show me your balance sheet?
3. Do you have good relationships with reputable banks?
4. Who is quoting the rates, my broker, a bank, or multiple banks?
5. Are the spreads fixed of variable?
6. How tight are the spreads?
7. Do you offer Fractional Pip Pricing?
8. Are there any trading restrictions?
9. Can I place orders inside the Spread?
10. Can I earn interest on positive rolls?
11. Can I earn positive rolls at all margin levels?
12. Are rollover rates displayed prominently? Where?
13. Does the trading platform allow me to hedge?
14. Can I lose more money than I put into my account?
15. What is the quality and availability of customer service?

Be aware that trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Source: http://www.xe.com/currencytrading/questions.php

What should you know about Forex Signals ?

Top 10 currency trading tips from Deutsche Bank

An e-mail from Deutsche Bank contained the following list, which will serve an investor well who is contemplating buying foreign currencies as part of their overall portfolio.

Top 10 currency trading tips from Deutsche Bank 

1. Know what moves currency markets. Like any asset class, there are a number of factors that drive a currency's performance. A country’s macroeconomic situation can have a major influence--economic data releases, policy decisions, and political events can change an economist’s outlook on the country, and therefore its currency. There are also technical factors such as interest rates, equity markets, and international trade, which may also have an impact. Spend time getting to know these.
2. Understand the strategies. Yes, there is a method to the madness. As a trader, you need to be aware of three crucial trading strategies, which are often used by currency traders: the carry, momentum, and value trade. Momentum tracks the direction of currency markets; the carry strategy sees investors selling currencies with low interest rates and buying those with high rates; and the valuation strategy takes a position based on the investor’s view of a currency’s value. However, the strategies that you use are up to you.
3. Decide on your trading strategy. Are you macro-driven or a technician? In currency trading, as in any form of active investment, it is important to understand how you arrive at your investment decisions. Are you someone who looks at the big picture (fundamental economic data such as inflation, or central bank decisions) and makes a call on how that may affect a currency pair? If so, then you’re macro-driven. If you are someone who looks at the changes to a currency pair and then tries to understand what this may mean from a macro-perspective over the long term, then you are a technical investor.
4. Manage risk. As with any investment decision, you must decide how much risk you’re willing to accept. Ask yourself, “how much am I prepared to lose on this position?” If you don’t have a convincing or comfortable answer then you should rethink the trade. Do not risk more than you can afford to lose. Think about how you can mitigate your downside risk; make use of trading strategies such as stop losses or limit orders.
5. Stick to what you know. There are 34 currency pairs that can be traded on dbFX, each of which have their own characteristics and considerations to understand and analyze. If you’re participating in the market on a part-time and non-professional basis, it is probably better to concentrate on just a few pairs and commit to thorough and robust research on those, rather than superficial research on the many. Some key things to consider when analyzing a currency pair are its liquidity, transaction costs (the spread), and volatility. As a general rule, major currencies usually have better liquidity, tighter spreads, and lower volatility, versus emerging-market currencies, which have poor liquidity, wide spreads, and volatile movements.
6. Plan your trade, and trade your plan. It’s one thing to have a plan, it’s quite another to execute it. When trading currency, it's important not to get caught up in the moment--the markets are fast moving and in the short-term can be unpredictable. Rather than trying to make a quick profit, stick to your long-term plan based on your research. Good currency traders make money in the long term by being disciplined, not necessarily by making short-term bets.
7. Research, research, research. It’s important to stay current. All currencies move quickly, so checking the price once a week is not going to help you make strong, long-term returns. It is helpful to use an online provider that provides you with up-to-the-minute data and statistics. Traders use data to constantly assess their trading positions
8. Keep your emotions in check. Like many important decisions, it is vital to keep emotion out of any trading decision you make. If you’re upset about missing out on an opportunity and want to trade yourself into a better position, or want to stray from your trading strategy to make up for a loss earlier in the day-- reconsider, because you’ve got the warning signs of someone about to make an impetuous, irrational decision. If you do feel yourself getting emotionally involved in a particular trade, take a deep breath, review your strategy, and establish how such a decision will affect your overall approach before going anywhere near the "execute" button.
9. Don’t expect to win on every trade. That may not sound like much of a sales pitch, but even the most successful of traders don’t win on every trade. What they do have is a robust plan and long-term strategy, which carefully considers the risks. So don’t necessarily be disheartened if a trade doesn’t go your way; review why it went wrong and see if there is anything to learn from the experience. But don’t think that currency trading is an option for those seeking quick money, because like any investment, it only should be played by those with a long-term goal in mind.
10. Don’t put all your (nest) eggs in the currency basket. Foreign exchange is only one of the many asset classes you should be considering as part of a balanced investment portfolio. Forex trading is not suitable for every investor, so if you are committing all of your financial resources to forex trading, be sure you are fully aware of the risks and rewards of doing so, because commitment to one asset-class is not recommended. The same applies for currency trading itself. Risk diversification allows you to mitigate your risk by spreading it out, that is, not placing all your faith in a single trade. Diversification is key, no matter what asset class you’re investing with.

Source:http://seekingalpha.com

How to maximize trading performance?

Maximizing Trading performance:

We all know how important it is to find our edge in the markets. Finding an edge could take months even years but once we have acquired such an edge, it is not the end and expecting windfall profits could only be a dream which is as good as wishful thinking. The next step is to work on yourself and develop the right mindset. Here are some tips that can help you Maximise Trading Performance:

1. Focus on implementing your trading plan perfectly for every trade

2. Focus on long term gains For ex. Weekly or Monthly gains as opposed to results of individual trades

3. Track and analyse performance to closest minute detail

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4. Evaluate your actions and make changes on regular basis

5. Keep a positive frame of mind

6. Avoid any conversations or thoughts that instil doubts about your ability as a trader

7. Be a teacher, help others maximise their performance, which in turn will maximise your own

To find a systematic method that can help you avoid emotions and discretionary judgement is just the first step. I can’t emphasise enough how important is to then develop the right mindset. Hopefully the tips above help. What do you do to Maximise Trading Performance?

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